Short-term risks are increasing when VN-Index enters the high price range越南文

According to general assessment, the market still has a recovery rhythm but VN-Index is moving at a high score in the medium-term accumulation channel, so short-term risk signals are increasing.
原文圖片：imagev3.vietnamplus.vn VN-Index has approached the upper resistance area of ​​the accumulation channel of 1,250 points and is likely to enter a downtrend. (Photo: Vietnam+)
 

After rising sharply to the price range of 1,235-1,255 points (corresponding to the peak price range of August-September 2023), VN-Index had a highly volatile trading week with 3 consecutive correction sessions below the resistance level of 1,235 points.

One billion shares trade each session

At the end of the week, VN-Index suddenly increased sharply from the beginning of the session under the influence of banking stocks and reached 1,240 points. However, selling pressure then increased suddenly, causing the index to plunge in afternoon trading with a sudden increase in transfer volume of more than 1.3 billion shares. This represents strong short-term distribution pressure.

For the whole week, VN-Index still increased slightly and closed at 1,212 points, exceeding the psychological price range of 1,200 points. Besides, HNX-Index ended the week at 231.08 points, down 0.84% ​​compared to the previous week.

The total trading value of the week on HoSE reached over 118,100 billion VND with a trading volume of nearly 1 billion shares/session. Especially on the trading session of February 23, the volume of stock exchanges increased to over 1.3 billion shares. This is the highest level since the session on August 18, 2023. On HNX, liquidity also increased sharply with VND 8,771 billion traded.

Mr. Nguyen Khac Thanh, analyst at Saigon-Hanoi Securities Company (SHS), said that the above developments combined with the sharp decline in trading sessions at the end of the week, the market is showing short-term distribution risks in many codes/groups of stock codes when VN-Index is in the price range of 1,235-1,240 points.

In the market, foreign investors also increased their trading levels. They sold a very strong net of 1,456 billion VND on HoSE and nearly a billion VND on HNX.

Mr. Thanh said that last week the stock market received a lot of information about credit growth by the end of January, which decreased by 0.6% compared to the beginning of 2023; The State Bank continues to maintain the current operating interest rates and maintain them at least in the first half of 2024; According to the January meeting minutes published on February 21, the US Federal Reserve (FED) emphasized that it is still too early to cut interest rates (currently interest rates are at their highest level in 23 years from 5.25% to 5.5%).

Last week, the group of banking stocks had a strong impact on the market with a high level of differentiation, sudden liquidity and attracting revolving short-term cash flows. Currently, some codes are still increasing strongly and surpassing the old peak, such as BID (+7.11%), VAB (+6.25%), TCB (+4.16%)..., while the majority Codes have dropped, such as (-4.74%), HDB (-3.43%), OCB (-3.18%), EIB (-2.65%)...

The group of financial services and securities stocks fluctuated in a narrow range and was under strong selling pressure in the last session of the week, codes TVB (-7.44%), APG (5.78%), VND (-4 .96%), AGR (-4.34%)... Besides, real estate stocks had the least positive performance on the market when most of them dropped and were under strong selling pressure, like TCH (-6.20%), DIG (-6.10%), PDR (-5.72%), ITC (-5.24%)... In addition, a number of trading codes had positive spikes. are CCL (+13.26%), VRE (+13.11%), PXL (+10.71%)...

Risk signals are increasing

Mr. Thanh analyzed that in the short term, the stock market has approached the strong resistance area of ​​1,250 points and the current psychological support level is 1,200 points.

“Although the market is likely to still have a recovery period, short-term investors should be cautious at the current stage because VN-Index is moving at a high score in the medium-term accumulation channel and has signaled a correction. adjusted, so short-term risks are increasing,” Mr. Thanh emphasized.

Regarding the medium-term perspective, Mr. Thanh said that VN-Index is gradually moving to form a wide accumulation channel of 1,150 points-1,250 points. In the past period, the index has approached the upper resistance area of ​​the accumulation channel (1,250 points) and is likely to enter a downward trend.

“The downward trend, if it occurs, is also consistent with the movement to move towards a new balance zone and accumulate again (after the period of deep market decline in 2022) with the time to form a new base forecast to be long. ” Mr. Thanh shared.

According to the analysis team of Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS), VN-Index had a rather strong trading week with a sudden increase in liquidity. Throughout the week, the general index recorded intra-session corrections. Especially at the weekend session, the index's shaking level became stronger. In the market, cash flow gradually spread to securities, manufacturing, and chemical industry groups but was not really effective. While the banking group recorded differentiation and only a few stocks maintained a good upward trend.

Technically, VCBS's analysis report said that with the weekly chart frame, the two indicators MACD (moving average convergence divergence) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) are still showing upward signals and VN -Index is still closely following the moving average lines, this shows that the market is still in a medium-long-term uptrend.

On that basis, VCBS's analysis team believes that with current market developments, the VN-Index will likely continue to fluctuate cumulatively within a margin of over 10 points before increasing again./.